| 东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期与发震概率研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 任俊杰,陈虹.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期与发震概率研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(3):51-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任俊杰 陈虹 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京,100085 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局“十五”重点科研项目专题:测震学中期预测新方法研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 东昆仑断裂是青藏高原中北部主要活动断裂之一。利用哈佛CMT资料、MapSis软件提供的资料和中国大陆地震震源机制目录等最新资料重新拟合了西部地区G-R关系．采用历史地震和平均滑动速率两种方法计算东昆仑断裂的地震矩率并进行比较分析．得到了地震复发周期和发震概率．并对东昆仑断裂带各段未来3年的地震危险性进行了评价。
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| 关 键 词： | 东昆仑断裂 地震矩 地震矩率 复发周期 发震概率 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-5942(2004)03-0051-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年4月9日 |
RESEARCH ON RECURRENCE INTERVAL AND PROBABILITY OF MEDIUM AND LARGE EARTHQUAKE AT EASTERN KUNLUN FAULT ZONE |
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| Ren Junjie and Chen Hong.RESEARCH ON RECURRENCE INTERVAL AND PROBABILITY OF MEDIUM AND LARGE EARTHQUAKE AT EASTERN KUNLUN FAULT ZONE[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2004,24(3):51-56. |
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| Authors: | Ren Junjie and Chen Hong |
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| Abstract: | The eastern Kunlun active fault is one of the main active faults in the northen of Qinghai Tibet plateau.In this paper,we use the up to date data, such as Harvard CMT, the data in the software MapSis and focal mechanism catalogme in China mainland,to re fit the relationship(G R) of western region and also use two techniques(historical earthquakes and average slip rate) to compute seismic moment rate of the eastern Kunlun fault,and to get recurrence intervals and recurrence probability.In addition, we compare and analyze the results and evaluate the seismic hazard of segments of the eastern Kunlun active fault zone in the coming 3 years. |
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| Keywords: | the eastern Kunlun active fault zone seismic moment seismic moment rate recurrence interval recurrence probability |
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