基于分县尺度的2020-2030年中国未来人口分布简

选取1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年人口普查数据，运用Logistic模型系统预测了2020年和2030年中国分县人口规模，定量分析了未来中国人口分布的基本布局、各地区人口增减变化以及城市群人口集聚度变化。研究认为：①2020-2030年中国未来人口空间分布的总体格局不会发生根本改变，东南半壁人口比例会有所减少，西北半壁人口比例会有所增加，但增减变化在0.1%~0.3%之间；②2010-2020年中国有1641个分县单元人口将仍呈增加趋势，占地规模和相应人口都在全国3/4水平，人口增加仍是主要特征；2020-2030年中国人口增加的分县单元将大幅减少到598个，人口减少地区占地规模和相应人口将占3/5以上，人口减少成为普遍现象。③中国21个城市群地区人口总量将由2010年的7.81亿增加到2020年的8.68亿和2030年的9.17亿，相应的人口集聚度也将由2010年的1.99逐步提高到2020年的2.17和2030年的2.33，城市群地区人口集聚规模和集聚程度在逐步提高，人口集聚态势更加明显。

Prediction of China’s population in 2020 and 2030 on county scale

China is a vast country with a large population. The population distribution of China may have significant regional differences in future due to many influencing factors,such as natural conditions, resources status and economic development conditions. Based on census data of China in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010, we predicted the population for each county of China in 2020 and 2030 by using Logistic model. Then we analyzed the spatial pattern of population distribution, the changes of population size in different regions, and the variation of population agglomeration degree of the urban agglomerations in future. The results showed that(1) China's overall population distribution pattern in 2020 and 2030would be coincident with the pattern in the 1930s. The proportion of population in the southeast part would decrease by 0.1%-0.3%, respectively, while that in the northwest part would increase by 0.1%-0.3% in 2020 and 2030, respectively,(2) In 2020, the population of most counties(1641 from 2253 counties, 69.7%) would increase. However, only the population of 598 counties would increase in 2030. In contrast, the population of more than60% of the counties would decrease in 2030.(3) The total population of the 21 urban agglomeration regions would decline from 781million in 2010 to 868 million in 2020, then down to 917 million in 2030. Accordingly, the concentration degree of population of the urban agglomerations would increase from 1.99 in 2010 to 2.17 in 2020, then up to 2.33 in2030. So the trends of population agglomeration in urban agglomerations of China would become more and more obvious as time goes on.