中国农民旅游流网络重心轨迹的演化

农民旅游流是旅游地理学研究的热点问题，其旅游重心能综合反映旅游流网络的空间扩散和集聚特征。运用国内农村居民旅游者的流向抽样调查数据，构建农民旅游流网络重心、旅游流向、移动距离模型，对农民旅游流的重心轨迹进行研究。结果显示：农民旅游流网络重心隐含农民旅游客源地和目的地双重心的内在联系特性，两种重心呈现“偏南-西南-东北-偏东”的演变轨迹，农民旅游客源地重心与目的地重心存在空间错位；农民旅游流网络重心的移动幅度东西方向大于南北方向，2003-2004 年与2004-2005 年的重心移动距离尺度大于其他时期；其网络重心与经济收入、人口、入境旅游三项重心比较明显偏西南部，呈现客源地重心向东南部、目的地重心向东转北的发展趋势，农民旅游客源地出游力存在区域差异、目的地吸引力存在空间不平衡。本研究作为旅游产业的区域布局与旅游资源的科学配置的基础工作，可为深化农民旅游市场开发以及预测旅游流的动态提供新视角。

The evolution of network gravity center for rural residents tourist flow in China

Rural residents tourist flow is a hot topic in tourism geography. The gravity center can comprehensively reflect the spatial diffusion and agglomeration of tourist flow network. This study is a basic work for regional layout of tourism industry and scientific allocation of tourism resources. Based on tourist flow data of domestic rural tourists (overnight tourists) in the sample survey of China's 2002-2008 domestic tourism, the paper constructs network gravity center models of the rural residents tourist flow, tourist flow direction, and shift distance to reflect the path of rural residents tourist flow by using SAS software and Google Earth. The results show that: First, the center of rural residents tourist is located in the west and north of the center of the destinations. Both of the centers show the evolution path of "southeast by southnortheast by east". The centers in 2004 became a yielding point of southwest-northeast changing direction. Second, both centers apparently incline to the southwest compared to the centers of economic revenue, population and inbound tourism. Third, the spatial dimensions of center shifting distance from 2003 to 2005 are greater than those in other periods. The east-west(the difference of longitude is 0.99°) moving speed of China's rural residents tourist flow center is faster than that of the south-north direction (the difference of latitude is 0.65°). Fourth, rural residents tourist destination center is located in the southeast of rural residents tourist center, shifting slightly from east to north; The distribution of both centers is characterized by a phenomenon of spatial dislocation, revealing regional difference and spatial imbalance of rural residents tourist capacity and destination attraction. The study may provide a new approach for further development of tourist market and the prediction of tourist flow.