| 塔里木河流域气候变化及未来趋势预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陶辉,白云岗,毛炜峄.塔里木河流域气候变化及未来趋势预估[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(4):738-743. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陶辉 白云岗 毛炜峄 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029／中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008;新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830049;新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002 |
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| 基金项目： | 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(2011490802); 水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701005;201001066); 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室开放基金项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据塔里木河流域1961—2008年39个气象站观测气温和降水量数据，对流域近50a气候变化进行了分析，并对参与IPCCAR4的17个气候模式在塔里木河流域气候模拟能力进行了评估．结果表明：近50a气温和降水时间序列分别在1986和1996年发生突变．1996年后塔里木河流域四季均呈现变暖趋势，最为明显的是夏季气温变化...
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 气温 降水量 气候模式 预估变化趋势 塔里木河流域 |
Observed and Projected Climate Changes in Tarim River Basin |
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| TAO Hui,BAI Yun-gang,MAO Wei-yi.Observed and Projected Climate Changes in Tarim River Basin[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(4):738-743. |
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| Authors: | TAO Hui BAI Yun-gang MAO Wei-yi |
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| Institution: | TAO Hui1,2,BAI Yun-gang3,MAO Wei-yi4(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing Jiangsu 210029,China,2.State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing Institute of Geographyand Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing Jiangsu 210008,3.Xinjiang Academy of Water Resourceand Hydropower,ürümqi 830049,4.Xinjiang Climate Center,ürümqi Xinjiang 830002,China) |
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| Abstract: | Climate changes in the Tarim River basin during 1961-2008 were studied by using the meteorological data from 39 stations.Annual and monthly precipitation and temperature series derived from 17 climate models were compared with available observations.Abrupt change points were detected in the observed precipitation and temperature series in 1986 and 1996,respectively.According to the probability variation of different seasons,a warming tendency can be seen for the four seasons since 1996,especially in summer.... |
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| Keywords: | Tarim River basin climate change annual mean precipitation annual mean air temperature projected changing tendency |
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