疏勒河昌马堡站年径流长期预报模型研究

通过分析疏勒河昌马堡站年径流变化规律,并将年径流系列按照频率25%及75%为界,划分成3种情况：即多水年Xi〉35.0,中水年24.5≤Xi≤35.0,小水年Xi〈24.5。计算其状态转移概率得出：年径流过程从某一状态转移至其他状态的可能性都有,但其转移概率的最大值达66.7%。由此可知,年径流的变化过程不仅有随机性,而且有很强的相依性。通过多年对站年径流预报工作的实践,经过各种方法的比较检验,认为建立年平均流量的时间序列组合模型,其逐年预报的精度较高,经过误差评定分析,该模型均为甲级方案,检验预报时性能较稳定,能对昌马堡站年平均流量进行有效预报,为疏勒河流域调水提供技术支撑。

Study of Long Forecast Model of Annual Flow on the Chang Ma-bao of the Shulehe River

Thought analyzing the flow changeable regularity on Chang Ma-bao of the Shulehe River,according to frequency 25% and 75% of annual flow,dividing to three kinds： a year of a lot water xi35.0,a year of medium water 24.5≤xi≤35.0 a year of a litter water xi 24.5.Figure out shifting frequency： Annual flow will have all sorts of possibility from a state to another state,but the dataset of shifting frequency will be 66.7%.There by changeable process of annual flow are random and mutuality.By practice for forecast of annual flow and kinds of ways to contrast,think to found forecast modeling which found combine modeling which time of average flow,the forecast is accurate,through estimating and analyzing of error,model is A,when test forecast that capability is steady.To available forecast annual average flow on Chang Ma-bao will offer technological support for adjustment water of Shulehe River.