林甸M S 5.1地震前地震活动图像分析和综合预报方法

通过对黑龙江亚板块及其临近区域的不同时段地震活动图像研究分析,发现了中强震前地震活动图像的一些特点,再回归到地震动力学环境中去,建立了理论解释模型和两条判据假说。以此为基础并结合近年来地震活动图像综合分析后,我们在2005年下半年黑龙江省地震趋势会商意见中提出:松嫩盆地是5级以上中强震的主要孕震区。2005年7月25日林甸Ms 5．1地震对此给予了验证。本文对此过程阐述并作进一步分析,希望这种综合预报方法对地震预报工作有所帮助。

Analysing the earthquake activity maps and the compositive earthquake forecast method before Lindian's Ms 5.1 earthquake

Through analysing the earthquake activity maps in Heilongjiang inferior board block in the different period of time, we found some characteristics before the middle intensity earthquake occur. Considering the kinetic environment, we build the theory explaining model and two guessing criterions. After analyzing the earthquake activity maps completely, we gave the opinions about the earthquake tendency in the late half year of 2005 that the Songnen basin is the central area where gestates earthquake as large as MS 5.1. Our view was validated by the MS 5.1 earthquake in Lindian on July 25, 2005. In this paper, we expatiated the process and gave further analyses, and hope the earthquake forecast method is helpful to our work.