Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Behavior, Institutions and the Environment, Arizona State University, United States;2. School of Social Work, Columbia University in the City of New York, United States;3. School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, United States;4. School of Human Evolution and Social Change. Arizona State University, United States;1. Department of Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island, Coastal Institute Room 213, 1 Greenhouse Road, Suite 205, Kingston, RI 02881,United States;2. PE—RMC Water and Environment, 15510-C Rockfield Boulevard Suite 200, Irvine, CA 92618, United States;3. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, United States;4. MS—Mosher Consulting/Stanford University, United States;1. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, PR China;2. School of Government, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, PR China;3. School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, PR China;1. El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR), Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n Barrio María Auxiliadora, 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas, Mexico;2. Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, A.C. (IPICYT), Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Col. Lomas 4ta Sección, 78216 San Luis Potosí, Mexico |
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| Abstract: | Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the performance of the system under different projections of climate change in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g. infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency of these measures due to a reduction of farmers’ willingness to cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food and water security under climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Adaptation Agent-based model Climate change Common-pool resources Irrigation systems Resilience |
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