| BP-CCA方法用于四川盆地夏季日降水量的可预报性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王佳津,陈朝平,王春学.BP-CCA方法用于四川盆地夏季日降水量的可预报性研究[J].四川气象,2013(4):35-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王佳津 陈朝平 王春学 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]四川省气象台,成都610072 [2]四川省气候中心,成都610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 川气课题2010-青年-01,川气课题-2013-青年-2 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于BP-CCA方法,首先讨论了多个因子对四川盆地夏季降水降尺度模型的可预报性,然后选取最佳预报因子并进行集合,最终基于T639模式建立最优多因子降尺度预报模型.结果表明,分别以东亚夏季10m纬向风、700hPa纬向风和700hPa相对湿度为预报因子的降尺度模型对四川盆地夏季降水的预报技巧较高,而将三个因子集合的多因子降尺度预报模型具有更好的预报能力.进一步将该方法应用于T639模式预报的预报因子场,发现多因子降尺度模型对降水的预报效果要优于T639模式直接输出的结果.
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| 关 键 词： | 典型相关分析 可预报性 降尺度 降水 四川盆地 |
Statistical Downscale Based on BP-CCA for Daily Precipitation over Sichuan Basin in Summer |
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| WANG Jiajin,CHEN Chaoping,WANG Chunxue.Statistical Downscale Based on BP-CCA for Daily Precipitation over Sichuan Basin in Summer[J].Journal of Sichuan Meteorology,2013(4):35-41. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jiajin CHEN Chaoping WANG Chunxue |
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| Institution: | 1. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China; 2. Climate Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on one year our cross validation, the BP- CCA is used to build the optimal statistical downscaling between the single predictor and the precipitation over basin of Sichuan province in summer. Then the better predictors are chosen to build a multiple factors statistical downscaling model. It shows that zonal wind at 10 meter height over East Asia, zonal wind at 700hPa height over East Asia and relative humidity at 700hPa height over East Asia are better predictors to forecast the pre- cipitation over basin of Sichuan, but the multiple factors statistical downscaling model shows higher forecast skill. It is higher skill of applying the multiple factors BP - CCA downscaling to the results of T639 than that in case only the T639 model is used. |
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| Keywords: | canonical correlation analysis predictability downscaling precipitation Sichuan |
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