海南地温变化与热带气旋影响频数关系

通过对海南省海口站各层地温和影响海南的热带气旋（TC）频数的相关及周期分析,发现月、季各层地温与影响海南的TC年频数均存在负相关性,而3.2 m深层地温与TC影响年频数的负相关性最为显著,此外,利用Morlet小波分析还发现两者存在相似的振荡周期.研究表明,利用深层地温作为预报因子,建立回归方程,对影响海南的TC年频数进行预报,具有较好的效果.

The Relationship between the TC Frequency Affecting Hainan and the Variation of Soil Temperature in Hainan

Correlation and periodic analysis are applied to the frequency of TCs affecting Hainan and the soil temperature at different depth levels from Haikou weather station. The results show that the monthly and seasonal soil temperatures at different depth levels are negatively correlated to the annual TC frequency, among which, the negative correlation between the soil temperature at 3.2m depth and TC frequency are the most significant. Apart from that, by applying Morlet wavelet analysis, soil temperature and TC frequency are found to follow a similar oscillation period. The research also shows that the annual TC frequency forecast for Hainan by the regression equation, using soil temperatures as predictors, shows good results.