| Abstract: | In Japan, landslides triggered by heavy rainfall tend to occur during the annual rainy season from early June until the middle of July; these landslides constitute a major hazard causing significant property damage and loss of life. This paper proposes the use of back propagation neural networks (BPNN) to predict the probability of landslide occurrence for a scenario of heavy rainfall in the Minamata area of southern Kyushu Island, Japan. All of the landslides were detected from aerial photographs taken in 1999, 2001 and 2003, and a geospatial database of lithology, topography, soil characteristics, land use and precipitation was constructed using geographical information systems (GIS). The training sample consists of 602 cells that include landslide activity and 1600 cells in stable areas. Using the trained BPNN with 49 input nodes, three hidden layers, and one output node, 239 589 cells were processed to produce a map of landslide probability for a maximum daily precipitation of 329 mm and a maximum cumulative precipitation of 581 mm for an incessant, intense rainfall event in the future. The resultant hazard map was classified into four hazard levels; it can be referenced for land‐use planning and decision‐making for community development. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
