| GM(1,1)-Markov模型在地震应急基础数据更新中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周中红,何少林,陈文凯,张苏平.GM(1,1)-Markov模型在地震应急基础数据更新中的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2011,32(4):55-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周中红 何少林 陈文凯 张苏平 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国甘肃730000 中国地震局兰州地震研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局“十五”重点项目，甘肃省地震局青年地震科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 受灾地区的国民生产总值(GDP)数据是地震应急基础数据库中一类重要的基础数据,由于数据收集的周期较长,造成GDP数据的现势性差.利用灰色一马尔可夫模型(GM(1,1 )-Markov 模型),建立甘肃省县一级GDP增长模型,实现静态GDP基础数据在地震发生时的动态计算,使其接近于社会经济发展的实际情况；在实际数据未得到...
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| 关 键 词： | 地震应急 基础数据库 数据更新 灰色—马尔可夫模型 |
The application of GM(1,1)-Markov model for data updating in earthquake emergency basic database |
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| Zhou Zhonghong,He Shaolin,Chen Wenkai,Zhang Suping.The application of GM(1,1)-Markov model for data updating in earthquake emergency basic database[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2011,32(4):55-61. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Zhonghong He Shaolin Chen Wenkai Zhang Suping |
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| Institution: | ( Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administratin , Gansu Province 730000, China) |
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| Abstract: | GDP in the disaster area of earthquake event is a fundamental and significant data in earthquake emergency basic database. Because of the long period and big investment for data collection and up-to-date state, a county level of GDP growth model of Gansu Province was set up by means of GM（1,1）-Markov model, and dynamic calculation was operated based on static data to better fit the actual situation. Before the real materials was obtained, the forecasting data achieved in this paper could be considered as not only the supplementary means for data updating in earthquake emergency basic database, but also a basic reference for earthquake damage prediction in future years. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake emergency basic database data updating GM（1 1）-Markov model |
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