逐步回归周期分析的改进方案及其在气候预测中的应用

考虑均值生成函数随机性的强弱,本文引进了筛选周期因子的新标准,提出了逐步回归周期分析的改进方案,运用东太平洋海温、长江流域和华南地区汛期降水量、太阳黑子和年轮指数序列进行实例计算,结果表明,本方案不但有较高的长期预测效果,且有一定的分析时间序列隐含周期的能力。

An improved scheme for the period analysis using stepwise regression and its application to climatic prediction

Considering the randomness of homogeneous out-growth function ,the new criterion for screening factors is used in the period analysis and an improved scheme of stepwise regression is brought out.From the case computations, such as the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Eastern Pacific area,the precipitation over the regions along Changjiang River and in southern China during the rainy scaso,n,the sunspot and the tree ring index,it is found that the scheme is not only suitable for long-term prediction but also capable of detecting the potential periods in a time series.