CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估

使用多种观测资料和43个参加耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的全球气候模式模拟数据，评估分析了全球气候模式对中国地区1980-2005年降水特征的模拟能力。结果表明：多数CMIP5模式能够模拟出中国降水由西北向东南递增的分布特点，这与耦合模式比较计划第三阶段（CMIP3）的模式模拟结果类似，但华南地区降水模拟偏少，西部高原地区降水模拟偏多。模式能够较好地模拟出降水冬弱夏强的季节变化特征，但降水模拟系统性偏多。从EOF分析结果来看，多数CMIP5模式可以再现中国地区年平均降水的时空变化特征，集合平均的表现优于CMIP3。多模式集合在月、季、年时间尺度下模拟的平均值优于大部分单个模式的结果。CMIP5中6个中国模式的模拟能力与其他模式相当，其中FGOALS-g2、BCC-CSM1-1-m的模拟能力相对较好。

Assessment of Precipitation Simulations in China by CMIP5 Multi-models

The capabilities of the latest global climate models in simulating the precipitation in China from 1980 to 2005 have been assessed from the results of multiple precipitation observations and outputs from 43 models that participate in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As shown from the results, most of the CMIP5 models can reproduce the basic spatial pattern that the precipitation increases from the northwest to the southeast in China. Most CMIP5 models simulate less precipitation in South China and more in the western part of the Tibet Plateau than the observations, which is similar to the results in models that participate in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The seasonal variation of wet summer and dry winter can be well captured, but the magnitude of precipitation is overestimated by the models. From the results of EOF analyses, most CMIP5 models have the ability to simulate the spatial-temporal characteristics of the annual mean precipitation in China, and the CMIP5 multi-model mean shows better performance than CMIP3. The multi-model ensemble mean shows better performance on various time scales than a single model. The capabilities of the 6 Chinese models are comparable to those of the foreign models, and FGOALS-g2 and BCC-CSM1-1-m have relatively better performances among them.