两次暴雨过程的主观及集合预报检验

对各级预报员、集合预报成员在两次暴雨天气中的24 h和48 h降水、温度预报结果分别进行检验。结果表明:降水预报中预报员分级降水TS评分随降水级别增大而减小,所有预报对小雨均有较好的预报。暴雨预报漏报明显,漏报率几乎为100%,然而集合成员中的最大值,对暴雨预报有一定的启示作用,业务工作中应得到重视。针对降水和温度预报总体而言,集合成员中集合平均值和控制预报表现相对优秀,可在业务中作为重要参考。

Subjective and ensemble prediction test of twice rainstorm

Examine the result of 24 h ,48 h prediction by subjective and ensemble prediction in twice rainstorm. The results show that, in the precipitation prediction, forecasters grading precipitation TS score decreases with precipitation level increase, and all that have good forecast for light rain. Rainstorm forecast omission obviously, false negative rate is almost 100%. But the maximum value of the set has a certain enlightenment function on rainstorm forecast, and should be given more attention in work.