西南地区不同地质灾害影响区的降水阈值研究

根据1961~2010年西南地区(四川省、云南省、贵州省、重庆市)重大地质灾害资料和全国重大地质灾害年鉴资料统计不同地质灾害(滑坡、坍塌、泥石流)事例,确定其影响区域。利用西南地区77个气象观测站逐日降水资料,根据降水阈值的定义和计算方法,运用线性回归法研究西南地区各灾害影响区的降水阈值。结果表明:我国西南地区是地质灾害多发的地区;1961~2010年西南地区重大滑坡、泥石流灾害具有密集成群、成片或成带的规律,有明显的稀疏区和密集区;且主要发生在6~9月,其中7月份发生最多,与降水的时空分布具有很好的一致性,降水是诱发地质灾害的主要因素。西南地区不同区域内诱发重大滑坡、泥石流灾害的降水阈值存在差异。西南地区的重大滑坡灾害主要是持续性强降雨型的。 

Study of Precipitation Concentration Threshold at the Different Geological Disaster Affected Zone in Southwest China

Taking advantage of the Southwest Region(Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,Chongqing) major geological disaster information and national major geological disasters Yearbook data,statistic 1961-2010 years' different geological hazards(landslides,debris flow),record the time and place of occurrence happened,determine the area of influence. Using 77 observation stations' daily precipitation data,according to the definition of Precipitation Concentration Threshold,and using linear regression method to research the Precipitation Concentration Threshold at the different geological disaster affected zone in the southwest of China. The research shows that :The southwest of China has high Incidence of geological disaster. 1961-2010 years the major time of geological disasters occurred is consistent with precipitation time,Mainly in the June-September,most of which occurred in July. Precipitation is the major factor of geological disasters. The Threshold of landslide,debris flow hazards caused by precipitation has differences at different place in southwest of China,The Threshold of Sichuan Basin region is Maximum,the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is followed,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is minimum. what's more,those hazards are mainly caused by continuous heavy rain.