浙江省滑波、泥石流气象条件分析及其预报研究

根据1949-2001年浙江省淳安、磐安、庆元和永嘉县滑坡、泥石流与降雨量的统计分析，将滑坡泥石流发生区划分成台风影响区和非台风影响区，提出了累计有效降雨量的概念及其计算式，确定了台风影响区和非台风影响区的临界累计有效降雨量。针对滑坡、泥石流应用MM5中尺度预报模式进行本地化研究，研究48小时的雨量预报。经2003年和2004年试报。雨量预报和滑坡、泥石流预测有较好的预报能力。

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION ANALYSIS AND FORECAST RESEARCH OF LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

In this article,regions where landslides and debris flows often occur are divided into typhoon-impacting area and non-typhoon-impacting area.Based on the statistical analysis of the landslides,debris flows and precipitation at Chun'an,Pan'an,Qingyuan and Yongjia county in Zhejiang province from 1949 to 2001,we bring forward the concept of accumulated effective precipitation and give its calculation formula.Through this formula and the data analysis,critical accumulated effective precipitation in typhoon-impacting area and non-typhoon-impacting area are obtained separately.The mesoscale numerical model MM5 is localized to forecast the accumulated precipitation within 48 hours.And we use the results above to give the forecast of landslides and debris flows.Through trials in plum rain(sustained rain) periods from 2003 to 2004,the results are good.