华北平原水资源紧缺情势与因源

基于水资源可持续利用理念,从水资源承载能力演化周期性、经济社会需用水规模难变性和未来水资源供需关系入手,介绍近60年以来华北平原水资源情势,特别是该平原水资源量、实际用水量和地下水开采量变化特征,并结合未来10到30年区域经济社会发展需用水量趋势,识别和诊断华北平原水资源紧缺因源。结果表明：由于降水量减少导致华北平原缺水（自然资源性缺水）占该平原总缺水量的15.1%~16.4%;因管理缺陷导致水资源浪费的缺水（管理性缺水）占22.1%~24.2%;人口数量和经济社会发展规模过大导致用水量超过区域水资源承载力的缺水（政策性缺水）占59.3%~62.5%。自然资源性、管理性以及政策性缺水的解决对策不同：自然资源性缺水是不依人的意志为转移的,惟有从外域适量调水才能解决;管理性缺水可通过社会文明进步和科技进步不断修正;政策性缺水宜因势利导进行经济社会布局和产业结构调整,特别是限制高耗低效用水产业。即使南水北调工程70.3×108m3/a水进入华北平原,该平原地下水超采情势也难以得到根本性扭转。有新增水源调入或华北平原严控生活和工业用水量,同时大幅压减农业用水量,因势利导优化和逐步调整经济社会布局和产业结构,特别是灌溉农业进行规模化减蒸、降耗、节水的改造,将是缓解华北平原地下水超采和水资源紧缺的根本所在。

Situation and Origin of Water Resources in Short Supply in North China Plain

Based on the idea of water resources sustainable utilization,the evolution cycles of bearing capacity of water resources,water consumption for economic and social development and relation between supply and demand of water resources in the future were analyzed;the situation of water resources in North China Plain over the past 60 years was introduced,especially the characteristic of actual water consumption and the quantity of water resource and exploiting groundwater;origin of water resources in short supply in North China Plain were discussed with the trend of water consumption for regional economic and social development in the coming 10-30 years.The results showed that water scarcity were from 59.3% to 62.5% of the total water scarcity for imperfect policy,from 22.1% to 24.2% for faulty management and from 15.1% to 16.4% for rainfall decrease in North China Plain.The solutions for the above three kinds of water scarcity were different.The groundwater overexploitation could not be substantially restrained,even if 70.3×108 m3/a of water resources transferred into North China Plain by south-to-north water diversion project.The fundamental approach for improving the groundwater overexploitation and water capacity in North China Plain were that new water source was found;domestic water and industrial consumption were strongly controlled;agricultural water decreased sharply;the structures of economic and social distribution and industry were gradually optimized;water use efficiency could be improved for irrigation agriculture.