洪水预报自由水蓄量动态系统响应修正方法

为提高实时洪水预报精度,提出一种基于动态系统响应修正自由水蓄量的新方法。该方法将新安江模型自由水蓄水库以下的部分作为一个系统,将自由水蓄量的扰动值与对应的系统响应差值建立关系,通过最小二乘法建立起一个向误差源追溯的自由水蓄量误差反演修正模型。分别应用理想模型与东圳流域对其进行检验,并与二阶自回归(AR)模型的修正结果进行比较。结果表明,对于流域的16场历史洪水,新方法的修正效果相比于AR模型有明显提高,可在实际流域中推广应用。

Free-water storage error correction based on dynamic system response in flood forecasting

It has proposed a new method of correcting free-water storage based on dynamic system response in order to improve the real-time flood forecasting accuracy. Taking the part below the free-water reservoir of Xin'anjiang model as a system and connecting the disturbance of free-water storage with the corresponding system response difference, this method, has established an error inversion correction model, tracking back to the error source through the least square method, for free-water storage. It has been verified through the application of ideal model and Dongzhen drainage basin, and compared with the corrected results of AR(2) model. It is indicated that the correction effects of the new method is obviously better than that of the AR(2) model for the 16 floods happened historically to this drainage basin. Therefore, this method could be popularized in practical drainage basins.