渤海风暴减水特征及其对深水航路影响的数值模拟

利用环渤海9个沿岸站近10a潮位资料分析渤海海域的风暴减水特征,结果表明:渤海年均出现50cm和100cm风暴减水分别超过30d和6d,每年的9月至翌年4月份风暴减水最为频繁;建立了一套精细化天文潮-风暴潮耦合模型用于渤海深水航路的潮位预报,各站天文潮模拟验证的平均均方根误差为18.5cm,由此计算得到航路代表点的潮汐特征值并作潮汐预报;后报模拟了近10a重大风暴减水过程,模拟与实测吻合较好,说明该耦合模型可为该航路的潮位预报提供有益参考。

Numerical simulation study on deepwater channel influenced by negative storm surge and its features in Bohai Sea

The negative storm surge features based on the last 10 a tidal data of 9 coastal tide gauges in Bohai Sea has analyzed in this paper, the results show that: average annual negative storm surge of 50 and 100 cm is more than 30 d and 6d respectively, and September to April next year is the most frequently.A tide-storm surge coupled model with high resolution has been simulated tide, the average RMS is 18.5 cm for the coastal tide gauge, and the tidal characteristic quantities of each point at deepwater channel has been calculated for tide prediction.The large negative storm surge for last 10 a has been simulated base on the coupled model and the calculated results agree well with the observations, indicates that the coupled model can provide a useful reference on the tide forecast for the deepwater channel in Bohai Sea.