一种新的预报晴空湍流综合算法

介绍了晴空湍流及其相关的湍流指数，以及通过对9个指数进行加权综合得到的一个综合预报算法。利用T213模式资料，计算了9个湍流指数，并分别用12个北京地区的飞机颠簸个例进行验证，得到各湍流指数的预报结果；在此基础上，应用新的综合算法，得到一个综合预报结果。计算结果表明，虽然理查孙数和风相关指数、MOSCAT概率预报因子指数的预报效果相对较好，但是这三个指数的预报范围和强度均偏大，容易出现空报；综合算法则较好地综合各个指数，预报区域相对集中，预报强度也较符合实际情况，空报的情况也得到了相应的改善，总体预报效果较好

A NEW SYNTHESIS ALGORITHM FOR CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE FORECAST

Clear air turbulence （CAT） and the related turbulence indices, as well as a synthesis algorithm which applies 9 comprehensive weighted indices, are expounded. The 9 turbulence indices are calculated from the data of T213 model and examined by 12 aircraft bump cases in Beijing. Based on the examination, a final forecast is produced through the new synthesis algorithm. The results indicate that the three indices of Richardson Number, wind related index and MOS CAT probability forecast factor index have relatively better effects. However, the area and the intensity forecasted by them tend to be larger and there are more false alarms. Whereas, the area and the intensity forecasted by the synthesis algorithm accord better with the real ones and the false alarms lessen. In general, the effect is preferable.