2000-2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素

人口空间分布及其集疏变化是区域发展规划的重要科学基础之一。2000-2010年中国人口变化格局及其驱动因素有待进一步梳理。鉴于此,以分县为基本研究单元,利用2000年与2010年两次人口普查数据,首先根据人口密度变化将中国不同地区划分为快速增加、缓慢增加、缓慢降低和快速降低四个类型,并分析其空间格局与地域特征。在此基础上,选取11个自然与社会经济因素,利用偏最小二乘法 (PLS),对全国及四类地区的人口密度变化影响因素及其地域差异进行了定量分析。研究结果表明：① 相较于2000年,2010年全国超过60%的分县单元人口密度增加,平均增速为21人/km²,主要分布在城镇密集地区;不到40%的分县单元人口密度减少,平均降低13人/km²,主要分布在人口密集省份、老城区和边境地区;② 自然因素与社会经济因素对人口密度变化均有影响,但社会经济因素影响更大。高经济发展水平、医疗条件和通讯能力是人口密度增加的主要“拉力”,而地区内稠密的人口是人口密度降低的主要“推力”。上述结论基本理清了中国近10年来人口增减变化空间分布格局及其地域影响因素,可为未来人口发展和区域规划提供有益的借鉴。

The change of population density and its influencing factors from 2000 to 2010 in China on county scale

Studying the change of population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. However, the spatial patterns and driving factors of the change of population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study first analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the changes in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square (PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant influencing factors of population density change among 11 natural and social-economic factors for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that: (1) compared to the population density in 2000, the population density in most counties (over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km² on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km² in 2010. Of all 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively show rapidly and slowly increasing population density, while 458 and 446 counties show slowly and rapidly decreasing population density, respectively. (2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors have impact on population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were main pull factors of population increases. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decreases. These conclusions generally clarified the spatial distribution pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide reference for the future population planning.