江西省主要气象灾害年代际变化特征分析

利用江西省81个台站的气温、降水、大风、冰雹等资料,采用多项式回归、低通滤波等分析方法,对1959—2005年江西省主要气象灾害年代际变化进行了分析。结果发现,江西省的气象灾害呈现明显的年代际变化特征,其中暴雨洪涝在20世纪60年代、90年代为相对多发期,70—80年代相对较少,进入90年代后,大暴雨和特大暴雨出现的频率呈上升趋势,致使在全省性洪涝灾害较为严重的10个年份中,有4个出现在90年代。干旱在60年代和80年代中期—90年代初期为相对多发期,从2003年开始呈现明显的上升趋势,江西有可能进入新一轮夏秋干旱频发期。冬季低温冻害在80年代出现次数较多,最严重的冻害大多出现在60年代—70年代中期,之后在全球气候变暖的大背景下,冻害总体呈减少趋势,但极端低温事件时有发生,个别年份冻害较重。另外,大风、冰雹灾害总体呈下降趋势,尤其是大风在90年代后下降趋势明显。

Characteristics Analysis on Inter-decadal Variation of Main Meteorological Disasters in Jiangxi

Based on the methods of multinomial regression and low pass filter,the data of temperature,precipitation,strong wind and hail of 81 stations in Jiangxi province are used to analyze the inter-decadal variation characteristics of meteorological disasters from 1959 to 2005.The results indicate that meteorological disasters in Jiangxi province display distinct inter-decadal variation.Most serious flood disasters occurred in 1960s and 1990s and less occurred in 1970s and 1980s.The frequency of heavy rain events shows an increasing trend and four of the ten years with the most serious flood disasters were in 1990s.More drought disasters occurred in 1960s and in the period of middle 1980s to early 1990s.It is possible that there is a new period of frequent drought due to the obvious increasing trend since 2003.There were more chilly damage in 1980s and the most serious chilly events happened in the period of 1960s to the middle 1970s.Chilly events have decreased since then due to the global warming,but extreme chilly events happened at times.Besides,strong wind and hail damage show decreasing trend,especially strong wind has decreased sharply since 1990s.