巴黎气候会议对全球长期目标的新发展

巴黎气候会议（COP21）达成了包括《巴黎协定》在内的重要成果，丰富和深化了应对气候变化的一揽子长期目标。1.5℃温升控制目标意味着全球管控气候风险的政治意愿得到强化，减缓温室气体排放的路径得到初步勾勒。在未来的科学评估和政治谈判中，全球各区域甚至是各个排放大国的排放空间、排放路径和减缓需求将会进一步清晰化和定量化，还会丰富和深化自上而下的国际气候合作规则，结合当前以国家自主决定贡献（INDC）为特征的、主要以自下而上方式推进全球气候治理的新模式，将对发展中国家、尤其是发展中排放大国的排放配额与发展空间产生重要影响，并进一步影响各国制定其国家贡献目标与行动的自主性。

Paris Climate Conference and Advancing the Global Long-Term Goal

UNFCCC Paris Conference (COP21) reached important outcome including the Paris Agreement, which clarifies a package of global long-term goals to address climate change. The inclusion of aiming for 1.5℃ temperature control indicated enhanced political willingness for climate risk control, and the Paris Agreement also primarily depicted the global emission trajectory. In the future, scientific assessment and political negotiation could further clarify quantitatively emission space, emission trajectory and reduction requirements at global and regional level, or even for major emitting countries as well. Such a trend could integrate detailed top-down elements into the new global climate regime, which was gradually developed mainly via a bottom-up approach featuring the INDC process. This trend would have huge implications for developing countries and particularly for major developing emitters, for their emission allowances and emission space, and might influence the characteristics of national determination of countries?climate contributions.