产业内部结构升级对碳排放的影响——基于OECD主要成员国面板数据的实证分析

人类活动所引起的全球变暖已经成为当前世界各国需共同面对的问题。经济结构性特征是受到广泛认可的区域发展阶段替代指标，因而本文分别选用制造业和服务业产业内部结构为基本视角，对其细化信息进行挖掘，并在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）各主要成员国背景下对碳排放随经济发展阶段推进而演化的过程进行计量分析。结果显示：第一，产业内部结构具备更加丰富的区域经济发展阶段信息，能够在普遍意义上提供判别区域经济发展所处时期的良好标准，为处于不同发展阶段的国家进行差异化碳配额权分配提供参考；第二，制造业和服务业内部产业结构升级的阶段性对照结果说明，碳排放峰值时点滞后于工业化的顶峰位置；第三，人为碳排放在经济发展过程中呈现倒U型的固有演化规律，在工业化顶峰前的碳排放逐步增长是为了维持基本经济发展路径的不可抗趋势。因此，发展中国家在工业化顶峰前不承诺排放达峰具有较高合理性，但仍应通过推进产业结构高级化、发展生产性服务业等举措抑制碳排放增速、尽早实现达峰。

The Impact of the Internal Industrial Structure Evolution: the Analysis Based on the Panel Data from Main Members of OECD

Global warming caused by human activities has become a significant threat to the safety of living conditions. Economic structural feature has been proved to be key influencing factor on greenhouse gas. In order to explore more information, the internal structure of manufacturing sector and service sector are selected as the main impacting factors on carbon emissions. Based on the data from the major members of OECD countries, we conducted an econometric analysis on the carbon emissions controlled by the upgrading of internal structures of manufacturing and service. The main conclusions are as followed: first, the internal structure is much more informative than the traditional economic structure, and is able to provide a better standard to determine the specific period of regional development; second, the carbon emission peak would lag to the peak of regional industrialization; third, the trend of carbon emissions caused by human activities through the economic developing shows an inverted-U curve, which is an objective and inherent changing law. Therefore, countries that have not reached the top of industrialization have reasons to strive for a higher carbon quota; meanwhile, every region should promote the carbon mitigation through the upgrading of the internal industrial structures.