| 三峡库区降水—径流关系及径流量预报模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邬昀,陈海山,倪东鸿.三峡库区降水—径流关系及径流量预报模型研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2010,33(1):46-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邬昀 陈海山 倪东鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏,南京,210044;宜昌市气象局,湖北,宜昌,443000
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏,南京,210044 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2000—2007年长江上游各分流域面雨量实测资料、雷达遥测面雨量资料以及各水文站的历史资料,对流域降水量、洪水传播时间、径流数据以及基流值进行了针对性处理;通过单日产流Pa+P—R(降水量加前期影响雨量—径流)分析和场次洪水总量Crr—P(a径流系数—前期影响雨量)分析,结合各分流域拟合效果及检验,研究了三峡库区降水—径流关系,证明采用雷达遥测的降水数据作为降水量输入来预报各分流域未来时段内产流量是最佳选择,由此建立了三峡库区径流量的预报模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 三峡水库 降水 径流量 预报模型 |
RELATIONSHIP OF PRECIPITATION-RUNOFF IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA AND A RUNOFF FORECASTING MODEL |
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| Wu Yun,Chen Haishan,Ni Donghong.RELATIONSHIP OF PRECIPITATION-RUNOFF IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA AND A RUNOFF FORECASTING MODEL[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2010,33(1):46-52. |
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| Authors: | Wu Yun Chen Haishan Ni Donghong |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China 2.Yichang Meteorological Bureau,Yichang 443000,China |
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| Abstract: | Using the 2000—2007 observation and radar remote sensing precipitation data and historical hydrological stations data of the upper reaches of Yangtze River,watershed precipitation,flood propagation time,runoff data and base flow value are investigated.Based on the analyses of single day runoff Pa＋P—R（antecedent precipitation plus precipitation-runoff）and the total flood Crr—Pa（runoff coefficient minus antecedent precipitation;Crr=R/P）,relationship of precipitation and runoff over the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR）are investigated by considering the fitting results and the validations over different watersheds.Results suggest that the precipitation data from radar could be optimally input for the forecasting of basin flow rate over different watersheds.Based on these,a prediction-runoff model used in TGRR is established. |
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| Keywords: | Three Gorges Reservoir Precipitation Runoff Prediction model |
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