京津冀城市物流联系时空演变及驱动因素研究

基于2005年、2010年和2017年三期数据，采用修正引力模型、社会网络分析法解析京津冀城市物流联系时空演变，并剖析城市物流联系强度的驱动因素。得出如下结论：①2005—2017年物流联系强度增长经历了快速到缓慢的过程，物流功能疏解降低了北京的增速，河北省各城市增长显著，京津两城市物流联系强度占比虽持续降低，但物流联系量集中于京津两地的格局没有发生根本改变；②京津冀城市物流网络结构日趋复杂，京津两城市网络资源控制力下降，河北各城市网络参与度与资源控制力大幅提升，逐渐形成以北京、天津、石家庄为中心的多核心发展态势；③城市基础设施建设、对外开放水平和物流专业化程度是京津冀物流联系的持续驱动，研究期内京津冀城市物流联系的驱动力由基础设施及物流专业化建设驱动，向以外向型为主的工业化驱动转变，进而向以出口加内需消费的双驱动转换。

Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of urban logistics links in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Based on the Modified Gravity Model and Social Network Analysis, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern of the urban logistics links in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2017. And an econometric model is constructed to quantitatively estimate the driving factors of the urban logistics links' strength. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2017, the growth of logistics connection intensity experienced a process from fast to slow. The growth rate in Beijing has slowed down because of the distribution of logistics functions, while cities in Hebei province increased significantly. Although the proportion of logistics connection intensity between Beijing and Tianjin continued to decrease, the pattern of logistics connection concentrated in Beijing and Tianjin did not change fundamentally. (2) The structure of the logistics network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is becoming more and more complex, the control power of network resources in Beijing and Tianjin cities is declining, and the participation and control power of network resources in cities of Hebei are greatly enhanced, gradually forming a multi-core development trend with Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as the center. (3) The construction of urban infrastructure, the level of opening to the outside and the degree of specialization of logistics are the continuous driving forces of logistics connection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. During the research period, the driving force of the logistics connection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is driven by the construction of urban infrastructure and the degree of specialization of logistics, which is transformed into the export-oriented industrialization, and then into the double driving force of export and domestic consumption.