基于社会网络的城市疫情空间扩散及治理研究

以深圳市卫生健康委员会发布的新冠肺炎确诊病例数据信息为依据，借助数据挖掘方法、空间分析方法和社会网络分析方法，对城市疫情空间扩散特征及治理对策进行了分析。研究表明：（1）从流行病学基本特征来看，疫情确诊病例人群结构复杂，来源地较广，延续时间较长，被传染病例发病滞后周期复杂。（2）从家庭内部及夫妻之间传播网络来看，疫情扩散具有强烈的空间聚集性特征。（3）从重点疫区和非疫区传播网络来看，疫情扩散具有明显的空间流动性特征。（4）从社交活动传播网络来看，疫情空间扩散具有私密性和不确定性特征。（5）从境外疫情空间蔓延的传播网络来看，疫情扩散具有国际性和不可抗拒性特征。（6）在城市管理中，应该优化城市空间效能，利用现代通信网络技术提高治理时效性和柔韧性。

Research on spatial spread and control of urban epidemic by social network

This paper analyed the spatial diffusion characteristics of urban epidemic situation and its control measures of COVID-19 with the help of data mining method, spatial analysis and social network analysis based on the confirmed cases data information of COVID-19 released by Sanitation and Health Committee of Shenzhen. Research shows some results as follow. First, judging from the basic characteristics of epidemiology, the population structure of confirmed cases is complex with a wide range of sources, long duration, and a complicated hysteresis cycle for paroxysm. Second, from the aspect of communication networks within the family and between couples, the spread of the COVID-19 has a strong spatial aggregation feature. Third, judging from the transmission network of key epidemic and non-epidemic areas, the spread of COVID-19 has obvious spatial mobility characteristics. Fourth, from the perspective of social activity communication networks, the spatial spread of COVID-19 has the characteristics of privacy and uncertainty. Fifth, from the point of view of the spreading network of overseas epidemic space spread, the spread of the epidemic has international and irresistible characteristics. Sixth, the efficiency of urban space should be optimized in urban management, using modern communication network technology to improve the timeliness and flexibility of governance.