中国对RCEP国家能源投资布局与风险的时空特征

能源投资是《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）重要的推进内容，也是中国开展周边能源合作、保障能源安全的有力措施。基于2005—2021年中国对RCEP成员国的能源投资数据及联合国投票结果，借助构建的投资风险指数和GIS空间技术等手段，探讨了中国对RCEP国家能源投资布局与风险的时空特征。研究发现：①RCEP国家在中国对外能源投资中的地位尤为突出，新能源领域已成为中国企业投资布局的新增长极；②中国对RCEP国家的能源投资格局呈阶梯化和多元化并存之势，遵循着国企领衔、中外合建下滑、绿地投资缓慢的企业进入模式；③RCEP区域整体投资环境显著恶化，政策环境构成中南半岛能源投资长期短板，政治关系恶化严重冲击中国与澳大利亚的能源合作。研究结果对于中国能源对外布局有所启示。

The spatio-temporal characteristics of China's energy investment layout and risk in RCEP countries

Energy investment is not only an important part of RCEP promotion, but also a powerful measure to carry out China's surrounding energy cooperation and ensure energy security. This paper uses the data from 2005 to 2021, including China's energy investment in RCEP members, and the UN voting data. Then it discusses the spatio-temporal characteristics of China's energy investment layout and risk in RCEP countries by means of investment risk index and GIS spatial technology. The following conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, RCEP members play a particularly prominent role in China's foreign energy investment, and new energy has become a new growth pole for Chinese enterprises' investment layout. Secondly, the pattern of China's energy investment in RCEP countries presents a trend of coexistence of ladders and diversification. Chinese enterprises follow the entry model of led by state-owned enterprises, with Sino-foreign joint venture and greenfield investment in the minority. Finally, the overall investment environment in the RCEP region has deteriorated significantly, and the policy environment constitutes a long-term shortcoming of energy investment risks in the Indo-China Peninsula. The deterioration of political relations has severely impacted the energy cooperation between China and Australia. The results of this study have implications for China's energy external layout.