南海周边航运网络脆弱性及对中国集装箱运输的影响

随着中国对外贸易的发展，南海在中国对外运输中的重要性不断提升，评估南海周边航运网络失效对中国不同港口的影响程度十分必要。以2018年前18强船公司的集装箱航线数据为基础，构建南海周边港口的集装箱航运网络，通过网络节点指标、最短路径模拟等方法测度网络的脆弱性，并分析南海周边港口失效对中国的影响。全文主要结论如下：南海航运的抗毁性较弱，15%~25%的头部港口失效对整体航运网络组织会产生实质性的毁坏；釜山和新加坡是本区域最重要的港口，海防、上海、青岛、东京、泗水、横滨、神户等在区域中具有高脆弱性；评估港口失效后的替代港口方案，发现替代集装箱港口的可选择范围很小，很少有港口失效后能同时满足地理临近、介数增长和能力相当三大条件，在海上航运网络中港口失效带来的影响是难以修补的；以最短路径模拟中国港口对南海周边其他港口的挂靠情况，发现新加坡、巴生和釜山是对中国具有全局影响力的三大港口，林查班、马尼拉、宿务、圣费尔南多、海防等对其他港口具有点对点的局域影响。

Network vulnerability of ports around the South China Sea and the impact on Chinese maritime transport

The dependence on the South China Sea for international trade in container transport has increased over time, with Asian foreign trade relying on the South China Sea transport corridor for 65% of all trade. Hence, accurate measurement of the vulnerability of ports in the South China Sea and assessment of the impact of port inoperability in the ASEAN region on different Chinese ports is necessary for China's shipping security assessment. This paper collects the container route data published by the shipping company network in 2018 to construct the container shipping network of ports around the South China Sea, and carries out the research on the vulnerability of the network and the evaluation of the impact on China through the methods of network node index and shortest path simulation. The conclusions of the study are as follows: South Sea shipping is weakly resilient to disruption. The failure of 15%-25% of the head ports would be a materially disruptive effect on the overall organization of the shipping network. Pusan and Singapore are the ports in need of priority protection in the region, while Haiphong, Shanghai, Qingdao, Tokyo, Surabaya, Yokohama, and Kobe are highly vulnerable in the region. When a hub port breaks down and stops running to handle cargo, there are few alternative ports that meet the three conditions of geographical proximity, betweenness centrality growth, and the same transport capacity. The shortest path is used to simulate Chinese port calls to ASEAN ports in the South China Sea corridor. Singapore and Port Klang were found to be the two major ports with a global influence on China's coastal ports. Laem Chabang, Manila, Cebu, San Fernando, and Haiphong have regional impacts. By assessing the vulnerability of ports in the South China Sea and trying to delineate the spatial extent of the impact of port failures, this paper complements the spatial study of vulnerability and makes suggestions and recommendations for the security strategy of shipping in the South China Sea.