基于县域单元的湖北省碳排放时空格局演变特征

识别碳排放区域异质性对于制定有效的碳减排政策具有重要意义。本文运用线性回归模型、变异系数法、Hurst指数和空间自相关分析方法,开展湖北省县域碳排放空间格局演变特征研究。结果表明,1997-2017年间,湖北省碳排放总体呈显著的波动上升趋势,年均增速高达4.74%;各县域碳排放变化波动性存在显著地域差异,整体呈“中低波动居多,高波动较少”的趋势;各县域碳排放变化长期相关性特征明显,整体以中强持续性特征为主,比例达70%,分布相对较广,其中强持续性区域主要集中在武汉市内;各县域碳排放空间分布聚集效应显著,呈以武汉为核心向周围不断辐射的圈层格局。

Spatio-temporal patterns of carbon emissions in Hubei province based on county level

Identifying the regional heterogeneity of carbon emissions is crucial for formulating effective carbon emission reduction policies. This paper uses the linear regression model, the coefficient of variation method, the Hurst index and the spatial autocorrelation analysis method to study the evolution characteristics of the spatial pattern of carbon emissions in Hubei Province. The results show that from 1997 to 2017, the carbon emission in Hubei province showed a significant upward trend of fluctuation, with an average annual growth rate of 4.74%; there were significant regional differences in the variability of carbon emission changes in the counties, and the overall presentation is “low-to-medium fluctuations, mostly high fluctuations”. The long-term correlation characteristics of carbon emission changes in the counties are obvious, and the overall characteristics are mainly moderate and strong persistence characteristics, accounting for 70%, and the distribution is relatively wide, among which the strong persistence areas are mainly concentrated in Wuhan; The spatial distribution of carbon emissions in the county area has a significant aggregation effect, showing a circle pattern with Wuhan as the core radiating continuously to the surrounding area.