全球原油贸易网络视角下的亚洲溢价与中日印韩原油潜在竞争关系

随着全球原油贸易关系的复杂化和亚洲原油需求的上升，全球能源市场的“亚洲溢价”现象成为需要关注的议题。本文基于全球石油贸易网络复杂性视角，选取1993—2018年国际原油贸易数据进行样本数据考察，通过构建复杂网络模型和潜在竞争指数，对全球原油贸易网络中的亚洲溢价现象和中日印韩四国潜在竞争力进行分析。结果表明：全球原油贸易集团分化交融，中日印韩呈现出贸易集团化的趋势。从全球原油贸易网络指标来看，中日印韩四国在全球原油贸易网络地位和影响力不断提升，有力推动了全球原油消费中心向亚太地区转移。潜在竞争指数表明，中国与日本、印度、韩国的潜在原油竞争关系呈现出不同特征，中日表现出“先强后弱”的特点，而中印、中韩表现为整体持续增强的特征。

Asian premium and potential competition of crude oil between China,Japan, India and South Korea from the perspective of global crude oil trade network

With the complexity of global crude oil trade relations and the rising demand for crude oil in Asia, the "Asian premium" phenomenon in the global energy market has become a topic that needs attention. Based on the perspective of the complexity of the global oil trade network, this paper selected the 1993-2018 international crude oil trade data to conduct sample data surveys. By constructing a complex network model and potential competition index, this paper analyzed the Asian premium phenomenon in the global crude oil trade network and the potential competitiveness of China, Japan, India and South Korea. The research results show that the global crude oil trading groups are divided and blended, and China, Japan, India and South Korea are showing a trend of trade grouping. From the perspective of global crude oil trade network indicators, the status and influence of China, Japan, India and South Korea in the global crude oil trade network continue to increase, which has strongly promoted the shift of the global crude oil consumption center to the Asia-Pacific region.The potential competition index shows that the potential crude oil competition relationship between China, India, Japan, and South Korea presents different characteristics.China and Japan show the characteristics of "first strong and then weak", both between China and India and between China and South Korea are characterized by an overall continuous increase.