21世纪新疆区域气候暖湿化趋势预估分析

新疆未来暖湿化的预估分析可为区域气候变化减缓和适应提供重要的科学基础。国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）全球气候模式在三种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）下的结果显示,新疆地区未来2021~2100年总体呈现气温升高、降水增加的“暖湿化”现象,但这种变化的具体数值和空间分布存在一定差异。其中SSP2-4.5情景下,相对于1995~2014年,预估2021~2040年新疆地区年平均气温将升高1.2℃左右,年平均降水将增加6.8%。对极端事件的预估结果表明,新疆地区未来暖事件将增加,冷事件将减少;极端强降水事件将增多,且高排放情景下的增加更为显著。新疆地区的未来预估分析,将有助于对新疆地区灾害风险时空变化格局的认识,对未来农业方面等风险防范也有重要的指示作用。

Future changes of regional climate warming and wetting trend in Xinjiang in 21th century

Future warming and wetting trend in Xinjiang provides an important scientific basis for regional climate change on mitigation and adaptation. Results from the global model that participated in CMIP6 (the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) under three shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) show that the phenomenon of "warming and humidification" will be reflected in Xinjiang in the future period of 2021 to 2100, characterized by increasing temperature and precipitation in general. Specifically, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the annual mean temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang will respectively increase by about 1.2°C and 6.8% in 2021~2040 (relative to 1995~2014). Analysis on climate extremes shows that warm events will increase, cold events will decrease, and extreme heavy precipitation events will increase, with greater magnitude under high-emission scenarios. The analysis will help us to understand the temporal and spatial changes of disaster risks in Xinjiang, and also play an important role in future risk prevention in agriculture.