基于脆性理论的灾害作用下生命线系统耦联分析

一个城市或地区的承灾能力主要看其基础设施的承灾能力，其中最重要的一个部分就是生命线系统的承灾能力。在分析评价生命线系统承灾能力时，不仅要考察复杂性、均衡性和可靠性这些网络特征，还要考虑各子系统间的关联性。这种关联对生命线系统整体的承灾能力有削弱作用。根据复杂系统脆性理论的思想和脆性联系熵的方法，提出了用系统综合脆性联系熵来反映和评价生命线系统整体的关联特性，并通过判断各子系统间的相互影响关系，量化了生命线系统整体的易损性。经耦联关系分析和计算，灾害破坏下，从生命线系统相互作用来看，电力系统受其他子系统的影响最大；而由于供水系统的关键性和其影响方式的不确定性，灾后首先要恢复的是供水系统的工作或供给。证明了该方法为优化系统组织管理、控制灾后的修复工作和协调子系统间的关系提供了依据。

Analysis of the Coupling of Lifeline Systems based on Brittleness Theory under Disaster

The disaster bearing capability of a city or region mainly focuses on the infrastructure, and the most important part of which is the lifeline system. It was demanded that besides the network characteristics such as complexity, proportionality and reliability, the correlativity among the sub-systems should be considered, which weakens the disaster bearing capability of the whole lifeline system. Due to the comp system brittleness theory and the brittleness link entropy method, the correlativity of the whole lifel ex ne system was estimated and evaluated by using the system integrate brittleness link entropy and the vulnerability of the whole lifeline system was quantized through judging the interacting relationship among the sub-systems. As results, the electronic power system in the example was most deeply affected by other sub-systems wrecked by disaster, and the water supply system should be resumed first after disaster for the disaster has a certain effect on it. It was proved that this method could provide reference and direction for optimizing system organization management, controlling the repair work after disaster and coordinating the relationship of sub-systems.