梅雨异常年份东半球中低纬能量诊断

本文利用1980—1983年间ECMWF的逐日格点资料,计算了梅雨异常的旱(1981)、涝(1983)年间东半球中、低纬的大气能量并进行了分析和诊断,指出:能量随时间的变化具有中期振荡的特征,尤其是总能量在对流层中的振荡具有整层同位相的特点;在旱涝年间,无论是梅雨的前期还是同期,反映在能量的大小和变化特征上都有明显的不同;并且,梅雨前期的能量大小及其变化的差别可为梅雨旱涝的中长期预报提供一些信息。

AN ENERGY DIAGNOSIS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOW LATITUDES OF THE EAST HEMISPHERE IN ANOMALOUS MEI-YU YEARS

Using day-to-day grid data cf ECMWF (European Center of Medium Range Weather Forecast) from 1980-1983,atmospheric energy is calculated here for a dry year(1981) and a wet year(1983) in Mei-yu (continuai rain in June-July)anomalies in middle and low latitudes of the East Hemisphere. An analysis aased on it diagnoses temporal variations of the energy characteristic of medium-range oseil lation,which is spectacularly in-phase for the entire troposphere as far as the total energy is concerned. There are significant difference in the quantity and the change of the energy between the dry year and the wet year either in terms of the Mei-yu itself or the period immediately before it,and the difference of the latter inputs to medium and long term forecasts of raininess in the Mei-yus.