基于人口分布空间特征的市民化压力研究

改革开放以来的人口大规模迁徙导致中国人口分布格局发生剧烈变动,成为人文地理学关注的热点问题。以2010年第六次人口普查数据为支撑,采用人口总量指标研究中国户籍人口、常住人口及二者比例关系的分布特征,利用探索性空间数据分析技术研究人口空间分布规律。结果表明：中国人口分布整体依然呈现“东多西少”格局,且存在较强的空间集聚性;户籍人口、常住人口的分布主要表现为沿交通线、经济带集聚的格局,且常住人口分布的经济指向性更强;人口迁移格局较为清晰,东部沿海地区是主要的人口流入区,而中部地区多为人口外流区;人口迁移导致户籍人口与常住人口的热点区域存在较大差异,但热点区域集中在泛珠三角区域及长三角核心区。基于人均GDP及常住人口/户籍人口比值,将研究单元分为四类,对各个类型的常住人口/户籍人口比值、市民化压力、发展状况及三者关系进行探讨,为后续城镇化建设提供相关参考。

Research of citizenship pressure based on the spatial pattern of population

Since the reform and opening up, the large-scale migration in China has caused dramatic changes in population distribution, which has become a hot research field of human geography. Drawing upon official census data in 2010, this paper investigates the spatial distribution of registered population (huji renkou), resident population (changzhu renkou) and the relationship between them with the help of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). The results indicate that: (1) The overall distribution of both the resident and registered population is consistent with the Demarcation Line from Heihe of Heilongjiang Province in the northeast to Tengchong of Yunnan Province in the southwest, namely the "Hu Huanyong Line", reflecting a strong spatial agglomeration in the east coastal regions. (2) Registered and resident population are mainly concentrated around the traffic lines and economic belts. Furthermore, the distribution of resident population is based on a stronger oriented economy. (3) By incorporating the method of ESDA, we also reveal the distinct patterns of migration on the whole: migration patterns demonstrate an obvious tendency from the central to the eastern regions of China. (4) The population migration also leads to an obvious difference between hot spot regions of registered and resident population. Although the range of hotspots are different between registered and permanent population, both of them are clustered in the Pan Pearl River Delta and the core areas of the Yangtze River Delta. In addition, the authors apply the ratio of registered and resident population and per capita GDP to identify the four different categories, and then analyze per capita GDP, the ratio of registered and resident population, citizenization pressure and interrelation among them, which may provide references for urbanization research.