1961-2010年江苏省农业气候资源演变特征

利用1961-2010年江苏省59个气象站观测资料，采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法，分析江苏省农业气候资源的时空演变特征。结果表明：以热量、水分和光照为主的农业气候资源总量已发生明显变化，表现在平均气温以0.29 ℃/10 a显著升高；≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃的年积温分别以101.1 ℃/10 a和83.4 ℃/10 a的趋势明显增加；无霜期变化略有延长；降水量以9.1 mm/10 a的趋势略有增加；年日照时数以-65.4 h/10 a明显减少。江苏农业气候资源的突变期主要始于20世纪90年代初期左右。农业气候资源的变化将对江苏省农业产生深远影响，制定相应的计划是保证未来生态性农业发展的必然。

Evolution feature of agroclimatological resources from 1961 to 2010 in Jiangsu province

Based on the observational data at 59 weather stations in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2010 ,the tempo- ral and spatial evolution features of agroclimatological resources were analyzed using methods of a trend analysis and a Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the total amount of agroclimatological resources such as heat, water and sunshine changes significantly. For example, the annual average temperature is in an increasing trend with a rate of 0. 29℃ per decade, so is the annual accumulated temperature （-0℃ and -10℃ ） and their rates are 101.1℃ and 83.4℃ per decade,respectively ;frost-free season prolongs slightly ;rainfall is in a slightly increasing trend with 9. 1 mm per decade;annual sunshine duration decreases significantly with a rate of -65.4 hours per decade. The abrupt changes of agroclimatological resources mainly appear in 1990s. The variation of agroclimato- logical resources will affect agricultural general layout and development planning of Jiangsu province, so the corre-sponding planning should be established in order to ensure sustainable development of agriculture in the future.