The scale of forest transition: Amazonia and the Atlantic forests of Brazil

This article adapts a general equilibrium model that provides a spatial solution for land use, labor allocation, and product markets in a two good economy. The adaptation, based on von Thünen, considers the multi-regional case, and solves for two regions, one industrial and the other, a newly opened agricultural frontier. The conceptual framework is considered with reference to Brazil, where forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest occurs simultaneously with forest losses in Amazonia. Simulation results of the theoretical model are given, demonstrating the impacts of comparative advantage in regional agriculture on the spatial system. The main theoretical interest of the article, aside from providing a formal spatial statement, is to define a distinction between aggregate forest transition (A-FT), when the area of all forests in a multi-regional system increases with the advent of trade relations, and regional forest transition (R-FT), when forest recovery is spatially constrained, and depends on forest losses elsewhere. Thus, the article addresses the role of scale in defining forest transition, and does so by representing spatial dynamics with a formal model. It also suggests that forest transition privileges one biome at the expense of others, and that a concept of landscape turnaround is more germane from a wildlands conservation perspective. The article closes with a discussion of Brazil, and how its forests in Amazonia and along the Atlantic will fare in the coming years.