台风移速突变的诊断预报方法

用１９８０—１９８６年２０时欧洲中心的１０００，８５０，７００，５００，３００，２００及１００ｈＰａ共７层的网格点资料，利用台风移速方程，挑选了进入南海的２６个台风个例，计算了１２，２４，３６及４８ｈ的台风移速及移向，同时也计算了实际台风前后１２，２４，３６及４８ｈ移速和移向，计算出不同时刻的台风实际的移速差△Ｖ及移向基面△θ．分析表明：计算的不同时刻的台风移速整差△Ｖ与台风实际的移速差△Ｖ的符号相同的概括率是比较高的，结果是比较理想的，有一定的实际预报意义．

A DIAGNOSTIC AND PREDICTING METHOD FOR THE MUTATION OF MOVING SPEED OF TYPHOON

Using grid point data of the European Center from 1980-1986 (20) at seven levels which are 1000, 850, 700, 500, 300, 200 and 100 hpa, we selected 26 typhoon cases which came into South China Sea. By using the equation of moving speed, the moving speed and moving direction are computed for 12, 24, 36 and 48 hours while actual moving speed and direction are also computed at the same time for 12, 24, 36 and 48 hours. The difference of moving speed V and the predicting difference of moving speed TV of typhoon are computed at different times. The analyses show that the probability of the the same sign is higher between predicted difference of moving speed and actual difference of moving speed of typhoon. The results are fairly ideal, and have certain practical forecasting significance.