Numerical Simulations of Tsunami Waves and Currents for Southern Vancouver Island from a Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake |
| |
Authors: | Josef Y Cherniawsky Vasily V Titov Kelin Wang Jing-Yang Li |
| |
Institution: | (1) Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C, V8L 4B2, Canada;(2) NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, U.S.A;(3) Pacific Geoscience Centre, Geological Survey of Canada, Sidney, B.C, Canada;(4) Department of Computer Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C, Canada |
| |
Abstract: | The 1700 great Cascadia earthquake (M = 9) generated widespread tsunami waves that affected the entire Pacific Ocean and caused
damage as distant as Japan. Similar catastrophic waves may be generated by a future Cascadia megathrust earthquake. We use
three rupture scenarios for this earthquake in numerical experiments to study propagation of tsunami waves off the west coast
of North America and to predict tsunami heights and currents in several bays and harbours on southern Vancouver Island, British
Columbia, including Ucluelet, located on the west coast of the island, and Victoria and Esquimalt harbours inside Juan de
Fuca Strait. The earthquake scenarios are: an 1100-km long rupture over the entire length of the subduction zone and separate
ruptures of its northern or southern segments. As expected, the southern earthquake scenario has a limited effect over most
of the Vancouver Island coast, with waves in the harbours not exceeding 1 m. The other two scenarios produce large tsunami
waves, higher than 16 m at one location near Ucluelet and over 4 m inside Esquimalt and Victoria harbours, and very strong
currents that reach 17 m/s in narrow channels and near headlands. Because the assumed rupture scenarios are based on a previous
earthquake, direct use of the model results to estimate the effect of a future earthquake requires appropriate qualification. |
| |
Keywords: | Tsunami waves Cascadia subduction zone megathrust earthquake numerical modelling |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|