福建前汛期区域暴雨客观预报模型研究

利用滑动分区切比雪夫展开方法,求取高度场特征分布的展开系数及其时间变量,通过相关分析,从中提取物理意义明确和相关性好的预报因子集和消空因子集,再通过预报因子的多形态组合分析,提炼出物理图像清晰的福建省前汛期区域暴雨预报模型。研究结果表明:以高度场的滑动分区切比雪夫展开系数做为研制前汛期的区域性暴雨预报模型的信息源是合理且可行的。切比雪夫正交多项式能够对要素场的内在特征信息进行定量化提取,生成彼此相互独立的场量因子;滑动分区展开技术可对场信息做极限化的开发,产生多种尺度的特征信息,从而获得对预报对象成因更完备的认识。

Research on Objective Forecast Model of Regional Heavy Rainfall in Fujian Province During Preceding Flood Season

By means of sliding-window Chebyshev expansion, a series of expansion coefficie n ts and time variables of the polynomial is obtained. Through correlation analysi s, a set of forecast factors and elimination factors with clear physics meaning and good correlativity is derived. Based on the multi-form combination of predi c tors, a forecast model of regional heavy rainfall during the preceding flood sea son in Fujian Province is developed. The results are as follows: it is rational and feasible to construct a forecasting model of regional heavy rainfall during the preceding rainy season in Fujian Province with Chebyshev expansion coefficie nts of the height field; the independent field factors can be quantificationally derived from the features contained in the element field through Chebyshev orth ogonal polynomials; by using the Chebyshev expansion technique with sliding wind ows, the multi-scale characteristics may be obtained as a result of making the u tmost use of the field information, thus to gain more comprehensive knowledge of predictands.