百年一遇潮位淹没影响下山东沿海地区经济脆弱性评价

经济发达的山东沿海局部地区地势低平,海堤多为五十年一遇标准,一旦发生百年一遇风暴潮淹没事件,将会带来巨大的经济损失。因此,对山东沿海地区经济脆弱性进行评价,有助于减灾防灾措施的实施。本文借助DEM、遥感数据和GIS评价百年一遇潮位淹没影响下山东沿海地区经济脆弱性。研究结果如下:百年一遇潮位淹没影响范围主要集中在潍坊、东营和滨州;龙口、福山、芝罘、莱山、威海四市、临胶州湾各区与日照沿海的东港区和岚山区GDP密度较高,滨州、东营、潍坊各市、区,莱州、招远、蓬莱、牟平、海阳、莱阳、即墨与平度的GDP密度较低;淹没深度较大地区集中在潍坊,东营部分地区,胶州湾及日照沿海地区;结果表明:(1)经济脆弱性极高地区分布在寒亭区,城阳区;经济脆弱性很高地区为黄岛区;经济脆弱性为高的地区有东港区、莱州市、寿光市、昌邑县、广饶县与东营区等地;(2)脆弱性成因:寒亭区、寿光市、昌邑县、广饶县、东营区、莱州市、县是淹没面积大,淹没深度大;黄岛区、东港区及城阳是GDP密度大,淹没深度大;(3)预防风暴潮灾害可通过加强预警预报与应急预案建设,调整经济分布,加强柽柳湿地保护与积极扩大柽柳湿地范围等方法。

Evaluation of the economic vulnerability of Shandong coastal areas under the influence of hundred-year tide level

Shandong''s coastal areas have developed economy and dense population. However, the terrain is low in some areas and the standard of many seawalls are fifty years once. In the event of a hundred-year storm surge inundation, there will be enormous economic losses. Therefore, an assessment of the economic vulnerability of Shandong''s coastal areas will help to take disaster mitigation and prevention measures. In this paper, DEM, remote sensing data and GIS are used to evaluate the impact of the once-in-one-hundred tide bursts on the economic vulnerability of Shandong coastal areas. The results of the study are as follows: The impact range of submerged hundred-year tidal level is mainly concentrated in Weifang, Dongying and Binzhou; Longkou, Fushan, Zhifu, Laishan and Weihai cities, Donggang and Lanshan. The densities of GDP in Binzhou, Dongying, Weifang, Laizhou, Zhaoyuan, Penglai, Muping, Haiyang, Laiyang, Jimo and Pingdu are relatively low. The submerged deeper areas are concentrated in Weifang, part of Dongying, Jiaozhou Bay and Rizhao coastal areas. The results show as follows: (1) The areas with extremely high economic vulnerability are distributed in Hanting and Chengyang districts; the areas with very high economic vulnerability are Huangdao district; the areas with high economic vulnerability include Donggang district, Laizhou city, Shouguang city, Changyi county, Guangrao county and Dongying district. (2) Causes of vulnerability: Hanting district, Shouguang city, Changyi county, Guangrao county, Dongying district and Laizhou city have large submerged area, large inundation depth; Huangdao district, Donggang district and Chengyang have large GDP density, large submerged depth. (3) Preventing storm surge disasters can be achieved by strengthening the construction of early warning and emergency plans, strengthening the construction of early warning and emergency plans, adjusting the economic distribution, strengthening the conservation of Baish Willow wetland and actively expanding the scope of Baisha Willow wetland.