牛栏江引水工程岩溶隧洞涌水准确性分析

由于岩溶地区发育的复杂多变性，对于如何准确地预测复杂岩溶地区长大隧洞涌突水量，已成为一直以来难以突破的水文地质大难题。本文基于牛栏江—滇池引水工程中涌突水实例分析，从地层岩性特征及地质构造的影响、涌突水预测方法选取、计算参数选取、隧道涌水影响范围确定、水文地质单元划分5大主控因素，分别总结分析各因素对隧道涌突水预测准确性的影响。根据不同因素控制下其预测值与实际值的变化规律，提出提高隧道涌突水预测准确性的方法，并结合工程实例验证其可行性。其结论可为以后提高岩溶地区隧道涌突水预测准确性提供借鉴。

Accuracy Analysis on Water Gushing in Karst Tunnel of Niulanjiang Water Diversion Project

Due to the complex variability of karst areas, it has been a major problem difficult to break through in hydrogeology for how to accurately predict the water inrush of long tunnels in complex karst areas. Based on the case of the water inrush in Niulanjiang-Dianchi water diversion project, 5 major control factors: the lithological characteristics of the stratum and the influence of geological structure, the selection of the inrush water prediction method, the selection of calculation parameters, the determination of the influence range of the tunnel gushing water and the diversion of the hydrogeological unit are used respectively to summarize and analyze the impact on the prediction accuracy of water inrush in tunnels. According to the change law of the predicted value and the actual value under different factors control, a method to improve the prediction accuracy of the water inrush in tunnel is put forward, and its feasibility is verified by combining engineering examples. The conclusion can provide reference for improving the future prediction accuracy of tunnel water bursting in karst area.