The perceived landfall location of evacuees from Hurricane Gustav |
| |
Authors: | J C Senkbeil D M Brommer P G Dixon M E Brown K Sherman-Morris |
| |
Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Box 870322, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA;(2) Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State University, Mississippi, MS, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Hurricane evacuations in the United States are costly, chaotic, and sometimes unnecessary. Many coastal residents consider
evacuation after viewing a forecasted graphic of where the storm is anticipated to make landfall. During the evacuation process,
hurricane tracks commonly deviate from the forecasted landfall track and many evacuees may not pay attention to these track
deviations after evacuating. Frequently, a disconnect may occur between the actual landfall track, the official forecasted
track, and the perceived track of each individual as they made their evacuation decision. Specifically for evacuees, a shift
in track may decrease the hazards associated with a landfalling hurricane since evacuees perceive their threat level to be
high at the time of evacuation. Using survey data gathered during the evacuation from Hurricane Gustav (2008) in coastal Louisiana
(USA), we calculated a type of Z-score to measure the distance error between each evacuee’s perceived landfall location and the actual landfall location from
each evacuee’s home zip code. Results indicate a personal landfall bias in the direction of home zip code for evacuees of
three metropolitan regions. Evacuees from the greater New Orleans area displayed the highest error, followed by evacuees from
greater Lafayette. Furthermore, we validate the authenticity of the previous results by employing two additional methods of
error assessment. A large regional error score might possibly be a predictor of evacuation complacency for a future hurricane
of similar magnitude, although there are many other variables that must be considered. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|