地区间贸易流量的产业—空间模型构建与应用

通过深入剖析区域间经济联系的经济地理学理论基础,考虑到同业影响因子,重新构建引力模型,并引入空间滞后因子,利用地理加权回归方法建立了估算区域间贸易流量的产业—空间统计模型,并在中国30 个省区投入产出表的基础上,以省区间农业、化工、通信电子3 个产业贸易流量的估算为例对上述方法进行了说明。结果表明：① 空间统计模型的应用可以显著提高区域间贸易流量的估算可靠性；② 随着空间权函数中带宽的缩小,贸易流量显得更加集中。因此,带宽在一定程度上反映了地理活动的空间集聚程度,不同行业应选取不同带宽；③ 不同行业有不同的同业影响机制和贸易特征,农业输出地以中部地区为主,目的地以沿海地区为主,具有一定的同业竞争关系,而化工、通信行业的产业流动主要发生在东部地区内部,具有很强的同业合作关系。

Sector-Specific Spatial Statistic Model for Estimating Inter-regional Trade Flows:A Case Study of Agricultural, Chemical and Electronic Sectors in China

Based on theories of regional interactions and competition and the gravity model,this paper first develops a sector-specific spatial statistic model to estimate inter-regionaltrade flows by employing a geographically weighted regression technique.The model takesinto consideration sector-specific input-output relationships.That is,in some sectors thereexists strong competition between regions while other sectors may need close inter-regionalcooperation in terms of supply linkages.The former case results in less inter-regional tradebut the latter witnesses more trade.The model also introduces the spatial lag factor of tradeflows between regions.Then,the paper applies the model to estimate inter-provincial tradeflows of three sample sectors,i.e.,agriculture,chemistry and electronics,with data from the2007 provincial input-output tables of China.The computing result shows that thesector-specific model can significantly increase the reliability of inter-regional trade flowestimation.It also reveals that the bandwidth of weighting function is a key factor in thesector-specific model;that is,the smaller the bandwidth,the more the trade flows.To acertain degree,the bandwidth reflects the degree of geographical concentration of economicactivities while the bandwidth itself is different from sector to sector.Different sectors displaydifferent features of inter-regional trade flows.For example,agricultural trade flows aremainly from the inland provinces to the coastal ones and show strong intra-sector competitionwhile trade flows of chemical and electronic sectors take place mainly inside the coastalregions and show an intra-sector cooperation relationship.