欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系，文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据，利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测，并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下，沿最优平稳经济增长路线，到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC，达不到预定的减排要求；（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上，采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术，预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比，非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年；（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比，即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标，欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标；（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合，可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%；（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业），即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径，仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。

Assessment of Economic Probability under the EU’s Carbon Emission Reduction Objective

Economic growth is closely bound up with energy consumption. This paper forecast whether EU will realize its promise to reduce emissions from 1990 to 2050 by 80%-95% based on the emission dynamic model with the data of the 27 EU members’ population ,economy and energy from 1994-2009 and made the scenario analyses under EU’s emission reduction objective. The economic dynamic model is constructed under the framework of optimal and balanced economic growth model by incorporating energy input into production function and taking technology induced energy intensity decrease and evolution of energy structure into account. After making the simulations and scenario analyses compared to “EU 2050 energy roadmap”we found that under the optimal and steady economic growth route with natural technological change rate and natural energy consumption succession, EU cannot achieve its objective to reduce by 80% and above. Concretely, EU’s energy consumption comes to 1613.42Mtoe in 2050, emission comes to 775.608MtC, 1.52tC per capita, energy intensity reaches 48.04 tC /million$. Compared to 1990, emission is reduced by 31.22%. Nevertheless, with the combination of energy structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and CCS technology, the objective to reduce emission over 80% can be realized. Specifically, energy structure adjustment is the most important. The proportion of coal, oil and natural gas should convert 4%, 2.26%and 1.23% respectively to the non-fossil energy proportion in each period. Moreover, the increasing rate of non-fossil energy should reach 2.21% per year. In consideration of the four emission reduction routings which was proposed by European Commission, the range of EU’s emission reduction turned out to be 80.51%-87.16%. However, the return of EU’s manufacturing may caused the possibility that EU cannot reach its 2050 emission reduction objective.