Quantifying the protective function of a forest against rockfall for past,present and future scenarios using two modelling approaches

Following a major rockfall event in 1987, two types of protection measures were taken in the village Saint Martin le Vinoux (French Alps). Firstly, technical measures using civil engineering were installed, and secondly, a forest management intervention to increase its protection was carried out. This study aims to assess whether this intervention was successful in the sense that it improved the protective function of the forest. We evaluated the rockfall risk for the situation of 1987 (before the intervention), today and the future, using model simulations with past, present and future vegetation cover scenarios. To increase the meaningfulness of our results, we used two different models, called Rockfor^.NET, which is a rapid one-dimensional rockfall forest evaluation tool, using simple slope and forest characteristics and RockyFor, a process based on three-dimensional rockfall simulation model that takes the barrier effect of individual trees explicitly into account. Both models correctly predicted that the forest was not capable of stopping rocks from the 1987 rockfall event. Further, both models indicate an increase of the number of rocks reaching the base of the slope from 1987 onwards. RockyFor shows an increase from 11% in 1987 to 19% in 2086. Rockfor^.NET shows an increase from 26% in 1987 to 56% in 2086. We conclude that a second attempt to increase the protective function of the forest should aim at restoring a dense coppice stand.