云南地区波速比预报效能的动态分析

通过对云南地区１０多年来地震波速比资料进行研究和应用，对波速比异常的预报效能作了动态分析，异常对应地震的时间，距离，幅度均随强震的孕育和强震活跃期的盛衰过程而演变。短临虚报异常可能提供强震孕育的中长期信息和中强震的中长期源兆。研究结果表明，其漏报的地震是发生在２５０ｋｍ范围内的后续（３个月内）中强地震；对发生在１００ｋｍ范围内的中强震（强震前５个月）有对应，而３００ｋｍ外的中强震漏报。

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF PREDICTION EFFECT BY USING WAVE VELOCITY RATIO IN YUNNAN AREA

The data of wave velocity ratio for more than ten years since 1985 are comparatively studied. It is proposed that it is necessary to make dynamic analysis of prediction effect. In other words, the time, distance and amplitude of the corresponding earthquakes are changed with the build up process of strong earthquakes. The anomaly for the short term and imminent false prediction may provide the long and medium term seismogenic information or the focal precursors of the moderately strong earthquakes. The study shows that the moderately strong earthquakes failed to predict are those occurred within a range of 250 km in the following 3 months; and the moderately strong earthquakes, which show the corresponding relation, are those occurred within a range of 100 km in the following 5 months. The moderately strong earthquakes occurred beyond the range of 300 km could not be predicted.