新疆交通可达性对区域经济的影响分析

采用Cobb-Douglas 生产函数模型, 结合GIS 空间分析的方法, 分析了交通可达性在区 域经济发展中对投资绩效的影响, 以及定量模拟了交通可达性在经济发展中的作用。研究结 果表明, 当交通可达性满足某一经济水平时, 区域经济发展主要取决于投资的规模, 但当交 通可达性小于与之对应的经济水平时, 它对投资绩效具有明显的制约作用。同时在一定经济 发展阶段, 交通可达性的波动与经济的波动之间具有显著的同步响应关系。另外, 新疆的交 通可达性具有明显的局部分异特征, 总体水平较低, 通过万元GDP 增长所需交通耗费分析 进一步表明, 这种分异特征与经济分布特征相一致。因此, 分析交通可达性对研究区域经济 具有重要意义, 对稳定、谐调、平衡发展区域经济, 划分主体功能区提供有力的依据。

The Effect of Transport Accessibility on Regional Economic Performance

Development of transport,as one of the most important causes of changing economic activity and location advantages,is essential to economy development.The purpose of this paper,is to analyze the effect of transport accessibility on regional economy.Cobb-Douglas production function modeling,spatial analysis and network analysis in ArcGIS have been used to analyze this connection.Cobb-Douglas production function(Y = A Ka Lb,Y = Income,K=Capital,L=Labor,A=Technology,a and b are positive parameters)is used to reflect mutual relation between investment and output.It has been applied to many fields such as industry,energy sources,regional economic programming and agricultural management.Accessibility is a basic index which is used to describe traffic cost.Accessibility is one of the main reasons to cause spatial difference of regional economy,because it can reflect the degree of convenience from one place to another using certain traffic system and the economic activity and location advantages at one place on a large scale.Macroeconomic development can be seen as output of social capital investment.As part of social capital investment,infrastructure construction is very important to the regional economic development.In order to analyze the effect of transport accessibility on investment performance in regional economy and its weight in the economic growth,the authors adopted Cobb-Douglas production function and its regression modeling to constructe a homeostasis equation based on the relationship between investment(transport accessibility and total investment)and output(GDP).The timescale includes 11 years from 1995 to 2005 which was divided into two stages(1995-2000,and 2000-2005,especially).Also,we integrated spatial analysis method in GIS with economic modeling theory and constructed a multifactor regression equation.According to these models,feasibility of developing transport accessibility and its roles in macroeconomy have been analyzed with the spatial-temporal change of transport network and change characteristic of macroeconomy in the same term.The result indicates that the transport accessibilities are still very low and disproportional in many places in Xinjiang.Transport accessibilities polarize in some regions.There are big gaps among the other regions.Also,it has not come into being an organic pattern in line or polygon besides some points.It also shows that economic development depends mainly on investment scale when transport accessibility is suitable for some economic level,however,investment performance would be restricted by transport accessibility when the latter is lower than the level.There exists different response relationships between fluctuation of transport accessibility and economy in different terms.The improvement of transport accessibility will be in the interests of national economy.Transport cost,one of the most important factors,differs greatly throughout Xinjiang.It is very high in most areas.The spatial distribution of difference is consistent with that of economy based on the analysis of transport cost in increasing 10,000 yuan GDP increase per capita.According to the result,we found Cobb-Douglas production function and the regression modeling can link transport accessibility with macroeconomy.A quantitative analysis has been made between the change of transport network in space and the regional economic performance with the models.The final result shows this method is valuable to decide and optimize investment scale.This study can provide basis for steady,harmonious and balanced economic development.