| 佛山市干日、雨日持续日数概率的预报试验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 葛军,张军.佛山市干日、雨日持续日数概率的预报试验[J].气象科学,1999(2). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 葛军 张军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京空军气象学院!南京，211101，南京空军气象学院!南京，211101 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文利用静态马尔可夫过程和一定时段内随机变量极值的概率分布，给出了干日和雨日持续回数概率的预报模型，并对佛山市进行了预报试验。
|
| 关 键 词： | 干日 雨日 概率预报 |
FORECAST TEST FOR PERSISTENCE PROBABILITY OF DRY-DAY AT FOSHAN |
| |
| Ge Jun,Zhang Jun.FORECAST TEST FOR PERSISTENCE PROBABILITY OF DRY-DAY AT FOSHAN[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1999(2). |
| |
| Authors: | Ge Jun Zhang Jun |
| |
| Abstract: | In this pater,the forecast models of persistence probability are applied for dry - day or rainy day at Foshan,based on stationary Gaussian Markov process and the probability distribution function of the maximum over an interval. The results are showed that the forecasts are identical with the realities. |
| |
| Keywords: | stationary Gaussian Markov process dry-day or rainy-day persistence probability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
