地震活动因子预测方法在华北地区的应用研究

为探索地震活动性前兆异常图像在1年尺度上的时空演化特征，应用地震活动因子预测方法，对华北地区进行了全时空扫描分析，筛选出对应效果较好的4个因子进行了全程统计。结果表明，震前1年左右扫描区域内异常小区由多到少到发震的现象，以及发震构造单元的异常小区所占比例较高的现象。归纳出根据异常小区数从多-少-发震的时间预测方法和根据构造单元的异常小区高比值的地点预测方法，它是利用地震活动因子进行预测的更易于识别的时空异常特征指标，经R值评分检验在一定程度上提高了预报效能。

Application research of seismicity factor prediction method in North China region

In order to explore the anomaly pattern evolution characteristics of seismicity precursors in time and space on one year scale, the seismicity factor prediction method is applied to conduct the time and space scanning analysis in North China region, and select the four factors with better correspondence effect and carry out the whole journey statistics. The results show the phenomena that anomalous sub-regions decrease until earthquake occurrence and there is higher ratio of seismogenic tectonic units in the region scanned one year ago. The location prediction method is inferred from the time prediction method based on the number of anomalous sub-regions showing regularity from more anomalies to few anomalies till earthquake occurrence and the higher ratio of anomalous sub-regions of seismogenic tectonic units. The method is much easier to recognize the temporal and spatial characteristic index of anomalies and the prediction efficiency is raised through R-value evaluation.